Summer's Forecast: 100% chance of patio season (with occasional drama)

After a spring that left many in Simcoe County shaking their heads at the sky, residents are looking ahead and wondering: What does summer have in store?

Environment Canada’s David Phillips offers cautious optimism, predicting a warmer-than-average summer with typical rainfall—a combination that could bring relief to backyard gardeners and farmers alike.

“If it’s been wet, wet, wet… at least if it’s going to be warm, warm, warm, that is the kind of almost perfect kind of situation,” said Phillips. Simcoe County has clocked about 30% more precipitation than normal since January, a potential “safety valve” for the drier days of summer.

But don’t expect to pencil in your beach days too far in advance. “We do get our share of summer severe weather,” Phillips noted. “And I would love to be able to tell you, ‘Just avoid the outdoors on August the third because there’s going to be a humdinger of a storm.’ But I'd be a charlatan if I said that.”

It’s not the average temperature or rainfall that defines a season—it’s the surprises. The ice storm that walloped Barrie in late March, downing trees and upending spring plans, is a prime example. And in 2021, it was a mid-July tornado that stole summer’s spotlight.

Still, locals might finally catch a streak of patio-worthy evenings. “We couldn’t buy a string of consistent weather,” Phillips said of the recent spring. Forecast models from the U.S., Europe, and Canada are now unusually aligned, predicting better days ahead. “They’re all singing from the same song sheet,” he said.

With summer arriving at 10:42 tonight, Simcoe County residents should prepare for a warmer stretch—along with the usual mix of unpredictability. As Phillips put it, “I think when we come to Labour Day, and we crunch our numbers, we’ll say, you know what, it was not a bad summer at all…
we got enough warm temperatures to satisfy all those people who love muscle shirts and tank tops.”