After a summer that brought plenty of rain, moderate heat and little drought concern, Canadians can expect a warmer-than-normal fall, with an early winter outlook pointing toward milder conditions driven by a powerful El Nino.
Looking back, climatologist David Phillips characterized the summer as one that struck a comfortable balance between warmth and rainfall.
"If you're a big fan of sort of Goldilocks kind of weather, well, then this is what we had," Phillips told Barrie 360.
While temperatures did not reach the extremes experienced a year ago, the region still recorded more days above 30 C than normal. At the same time, consistent rainfall helped keep lawns green, crops healthy and water supplies replenished.
According to Phillips, every month of the summer finished wetter than normal, with rainfall totals ending roughly 50 per cent above average.
"The D-word, drought, was not used," he said.
The frequent rain also appears to have delayed the annual colour change, with many trees holding onto their green leaves later than usual.
Fall forecast points to more warmth
As summer transitions into autumn, Phillips expects the mild pattern to continue.
Long-range forecasting models are projecting above-normal temperatures across the country for the season ahead. While cool mornings, frost and even an early snowfall remain possible, Phillips said those isolated events don't define an entire season.
"The fall forecast is showing that we're going to clearly be warmer than normal," he said. "All Canada is going to be warm."
The forecast also suggests wetter-than-normal conditions, although Phillips noted that the region has largely escaped the windstorms and tropical storm remnants that can sometimes affect Ontario during the fall months.
He added that recent years have produced longer, more comfortable autumns, extending the period between summer heat and winter snow.
"It may be over, (but) we still have a lot of summery weather to come," Phillips said.
A milder winter may be on the horizon
Attention is also turning to El Nino, a warming of ocean waters in the Pacific that can have global weather impacts.
Phillips said the current El Nino is developing rapidly and could become one of the strongest ever observed.
"This is what they call the Godzilla of El Nino's, the Super El Nino," he said. "It is likely to be the granddaddy one of them all."
Historically, strong El Nino winters in the Great Lakes region have been milder than average, often featuring fewer extreme cold outbreaks, more rain events and reduced snowfall totals.
That does not mean winter weather will disappear altogether. Phillips cautioned that other atmospheric factors, including the polar vortex, could still deliver stretches of bitter cold.
Still, based on current conditions, he believes the coming winter is more likely to be remembered as what previous generations described as an "open, soft, and tame" season, rather than one dominated by prolonged snow and extreme cold.
For now, residents can expect a comfortable fall, with plenty of opportunities to enjoy the changing season before winter arrives.
