Voters in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec are heading to the polls Monday in three federal byelections that will fill half of the six vacant seats currently sitting in the House of Commons.
While the Liberals are widely favoured to hold seats in suburban Vancouver and Toronto, political observers say the most closely watched contest is unfolding in Quebec, where a former Conservative stronghold could provide fresh insight into the standing of both Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Quebec race drawing the most attention
The riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, located about 200 kilometres north of Quebec City, was one of the tightest races in the 2025 federal election.
Conservative MP Richard Martel, a former junior hockey coach, narrowly defeated both Bloc Québécois and Liberal challengers to secure a fourth straight victory. Earlier this year, however, Martel left federal politics after Carney named him to the Senate.
The Liberals are now represented by Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer and former president of a provincial dairy association.
Daniel Béland, a professor of political science at McGill University, said Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is the race to watch.
The riding sits in the Saguenay region, an area heavily affected by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. The local economy relies heavily on aluminum, forestry and dairy production, sectors that have all faced pressure during the Canada-U.S. trade dispute.
Despite that, Béland said Carney's decision to end trade negotiations with the United States does not appear to have damaged Liberal support in Quebec.
"Donald Trump is extremely unpopular in Quebec, and I think that most Quebecers believe Mark Carney's explanation that the Americans were asking for too much," Béland said.
An Angus Reid Institute poll conducted after trade talks collapsed last weekend found that three-quarters of Canadians approved of Ottawa's decision to walk away from negotiations. In Quebec, support climbed to 85 per cent.
Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, said the issue could work in the Liberals' favour.
"If there is to be an impact, which there may well be, that impact is more likely to be advantageous (for the Liberals) than disadvantageous," she said.
Béland said a Liberal or Bloc Québécois victory in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord would raise further questions about Poilievre's ability to expand Conservative support in Quebec.
"If they really finish in a, say, distant third place in that riding, it will reinforce the narrative that Pierre Poilievre's leadership is not helping the party," he said.
He noted Martel's personal popularity may have played a significant role in his narrow victory during the last election.
Kurl added that public opinion on the trade dispute remains a challenge for Conservatives.
"Conservatives are evenly divided as to whether they think that what Mr. Carney and his negotiators did was the right thing to do or the wrong thing," she said.
Liberals expected to defend B.C. seat
In North Vancouver-Capilano, voters are choosing a replacement for former cabinet minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who resigned in June to take a diplomatic posting in Europe.
Wilkinson won nearly 60 per cent of the vote in the April 2025 election.
The Liberal candidate is Braeden Caley, formerly Mark Carney's deputy chief of staff and a senior member of the Liberal election campaign team. Caley is returning to British Columbia to seek a seat in Parliament.
Conservative Stephen Curran, a commercial lawyer, is making another bid after finishing second in 2025 with just over 33 per cent of the vote. During the campaign, Curran has questioned Caley's local ties through social media advertising.
The NDP, which received just over four per cent support in the riding in the last election, has nominated Stephen Tweedale, a staff member for a local MLA.
Toronto riding looks favourable for Liberals
The Toronto-area riding of Beaches-East York became vacant after Nate Erskine-Smith decided to leave federal politics.
First elected in 2015, Erskine-Smith briefly served in cabinet before stepping down to pursue the Ontario Liberal leadership. He later abandoned that effort after losing a provincial Liberal nomination contest earlier this year.
His former constituency office manager, Tanveer Shahnawaz, is carrying the Liberal banner in the byelection.
Erskine-Smith captured more than 67 per cent of the vote in 2025, finishing 23 points ahead of the Conservative candidate.
The Conservatives have nominated Jim Sybros, while Shannon Devine, a labour leader and activist who finished third in the riding during the last election, is again running for the NDP.
House of Commons balance unlikely to change
Byelections are often difficult to predict because turnout tends to be low, particularly at the end of summer. Quebec voters are also casting ballots while a provincial election campaign is underway.
The broader stakes are lower than in previous byelections.
The Liberals currently hold a majority government with 171 seats after winning three byelections following the April election and attracting five opposition MPs to cross the floor.
The Conservatives hold 139 seats, the Bloc Québécois 21 and the NDP five. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May remains her party's lone MP.
Monday's votes will fill three of the six vacancies currently in the House of Commons. Byelections for the remaining three seats are expected to be called in the coming months.
