Despite the positives early on, former Barrie mayor Jeff Lehman, who also ran as a Liberal candidate in the last Ontario provincial election, says it's going to be hard for the federal Liberals to bounce back.
Looking back on the early days of Justin Trudeau's leadership, Lehman, in conversation with Barrie 360, recalled the immense popularity he once enjoyed. "I remember back to the first few years of his tenure as prime minister. He came to Barrie for an announcement of some funding for our transit system and visited the East Bayfield Community Centre. He just got a rock star welcome," Lehman said. However, he noted the stark contrast with Trudeau's current standing, "We're really at the other end of the spectrum today. A lot of anger has been focused on the prime minister and on him as an individual."
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Reflecting on Trudeau's decision to step down, Lehman acknowledged the immense pressure the Prime Minister faced. "It was quite clear from the caucus leadership and what happened in that remarkable week before Christmas with the finance minister that the time hadn't just come, the time had passed," he said.
Lehman also discussed the broader pattern of political leaders falling out of favour after extended periods in office. "You're rarely as popular in your 10th year as you were in your first year. But I think the level of anger at Justin Trudeau was greater than I have seen with other politicians," he noted, attributing some of this frustration to the pandemic and Canada's ongoing affordability crisis.
When asked about Trudeau's legacy, Lehman was cautiously optimistic about how history might view his leadership. "In the short term, it won't be a positive picture because of the unpopularity he's faced in the last few years. But over the longer term, I would say the Trudeau government in its first years accomplished many significant things, including huge reductions in child poverty and modernizing Canadian law and society."
Yet, despite some policy successes, including Pharmacare and the national dental plan, Lehman suggested that no single policy could have reversed the party's declining fortunes. "Nothing was going to turn this ship around," he remarked, acknowledging the weight of Trudeau's personal unpopularity on the party's prospects.
Looking ahead, Lehman predicted a challenging road for Trudeau's successor. With the Liberals governing in a minority parliament, an early election seems likely. "The next leader inherits not just a struggling party but also a deeply skeptical electorate. Rebuilding trust will be an uphill battle."
Lehman also questioned where things went off track for Trudeau's government. "Even initiatives like the GST holiday, dental care, and Pharmacare, which should have been popular, failed to change the tide. There was a sense of negative momentum that simply couldn't be reversed."
In closing, Lehman expressed hope that the party could use this moment as a chance for renewal. "It's time for reflection, reconnection with Canadians, and a clear-eyed focus on the future. The challenges are immense, but so are the opportunities."
