New modelling data indicates about 1,000 new cases per day of COVID-19 in Ontario by first half of October

New cases climbing in all age groups

New modelling data released by the Ontario government reveals the province can expect to see more than 1,000 new cases of COVID-19 per day by the first half of October. On Wednesday, the province confirmed 625 cases, along with 4 deaths and 457 recoveries in the last 24 hours.

The update was presented by Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams at a news conference on Wednesday.

He was joined by Matthew Anderson, president and CEO of Ontario Health and Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown.

The health officials said the province is experiencing a second surge in cases similar to what other jurisdictions have experienced, such as parts of Australia (Victoria) and in Michigan.

They added cases are currently doubling approximately every 10 to 12 days.

Initially, the growth in cases was in the 20 to 39 age group but now cases are climbing in all age groups.

President and CEO of Ontario Health Matthew Anderson said 1,000 new cases per day would be a remarkably high surge.

The number of patients being treated for COVID-19 in Intensive Care Units is steady, but health authorities predict admissions will likely rise with an increase in individuals being hospitalized. Health officials said Ontario may see between 200 and 300 patients with the virus in ICU beds per day if cases continue to grow.

The public was told it remains critical they continue to avoid large gatherings, continue physical distancing and wear a mask in order to reduce the spread and the number of new cases.

“With the recent rise in cases, we limited private social gatherings and tightened public health measures for businesses and organizations to reduce the transmission in our communities,” said Dr. David Williams, Chief Medical Officer of Health. “We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve.” 

Health Minister Christine Elliot urged Ontario residents to not let their guard down as the cold and flu season approaches.

“COVID-19 continues to be a serious threat in our communities, and today’s modelling shows the importance of adhering to public health measures.”