Wednesday, the Ontario government released the 2025–26 First Quarter Finances, the first update on the province’s economic and fiscal outlook since the release of the 2025 Ontario Budget: A Plan to Protect Ontario.
The report provides updated information about Ontario’s finances, reflecting the government’s responsible approach to public finances while protecting the economy and keeping costs down for families.
“The government’s commitment to fiscal prudence has put Ontario’s finances in the strongest position they have been for over a decade,” said Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Finance. “In the face of economic uncertainty, our plan will continue to protect Ontario’s workers, businesses, and jobs from the impacts of U.S. tariffs while building a more resilient and self-reliant economy to secure long-term prosperity."
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In the first calendar quarter of 2025, Ontario's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6 per cent, matching growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, supported by higher exports and household spending.
Other key indicators in the report remain unchanged from the projections in the 2025 Ontario Budget. As of the 2025–26 First Quarter Finances, the province’s 2025–26 deficit is projected to be $14.6 billion, and projections for government revenues are $219.9 billion – both in line with the 2025 Ontario Budget forecast.
The province will retain a path to a balanced budget by 2027-28, and the government will provide a comprehensive multi-year fiscal outlook as part of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review later this year.
Quick Facts
- Key measures of government financial health remain some of the strongest seen in over a decade. Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratio of 37.9 per cent remains close to the lowest level achieved since 2013–14, while net interest costs as a share of revenue are still near the lowest levels since the 1980s.
- Program expense in 2025–26 is projected to be $216.3 billion, also unchanged from the 2025 Ontario Budget forecast, as well as the Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges and the cost of borrowing in 2025–26.
- Interest and Other Debt Servicing Charges is projected to be $16.2 billion, unchanged from the forecast in the 2025 Ontario Budget. Ontario’s forecasted cost of borrowing remains at 4.0 per cent.
- The 2025 Ontario Budget included a $2.0 billion reserve in 2025–26 to protect the fiscal outlook against any unforeseen changes in the province’s revenue and expense forecasts, which has been maintained as part of the current fiscal outlook.
- All four major credit rating agencies have affirmed Ontario’s double-A credit rating, reflecting Ontario’s commitment to maintaining its targets for debt sustainability measures despite the economic and geopolitical uncertainties the province is currently facing.
- Green Bonds remain a core component of Ontario’s borrowing program, and the province remains the largest issuer of Canadian dollar Green Bonds totalling $21.5billion since 2014–15, with $16.8 billion outstanding.
- Ontario's borrowing program is well ahead of schedule, as the province has already completed nearly half of the borrowing requirements projected for 2025-26. This helps manage risks related to the uncertain economic and financial market backdrop.
- The government will provide its next financial update as part of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, also referred to as the Fall Economic Statement, on or before November 15, 2025.
