So, if a federal election was held today a Mainstreet Research poll suggests Justin Trudeau would win with a substantial majority.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 39.3% support, while the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 34.6%. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh has 10.8% support, while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 6.8%. The Bloc Quebecois has 3.4% overall, but have 14.4% in Quebec. The People’s Party led by Maxime Bernier has 3.8%.
Mainstreet goes on to say Trudeau could secure that majority without winning a seat west of Ontario.
“The Liberals are narrowly ahead in British Columbia, but they are over 40% in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces. The Conservative vote is inefficient so Scheer will end up piling big wins in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Beyond this, the Liberals have over a twelve point among women and voters under 35, as well as a six point lead among voters older than 65.”
Mainstreet goes on to say the economy is a big factor.
A majority of Canadians told the pollster they’re optimistic about the economy and their own personal finances. And history has shown when that’s the case people are unwilling to vote for a change of government.