After a record-setting winter for snowfall, skiers and snowboarders may not be blessed with the same conditions this year.
But local ski resorts aren't letting the forecast get in the way of preparing for another successful season.
Much like the winter of 2023-2024, a potentially record-strength El Niño is raising the prospect of a warmer-than-normal winter and less snowfall across parts of southern Canada.
That was a winter where... in Barrie, we ended up with every month except November was warmer than normal," David Phillips, a former climatologist for Environment Canada, told Barrie360. "The average temperature was almost four and a half degrees warmer than normal... There was more rain than snow... you couldn't make snow."
El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when ocean water in the central and eastern tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual. It subsequently alters the jet stream across North America and changes weather patterns in many parts of the world.
A warmer, less snowy winter could make for a more challenging ski season in Simcoe County.
Despite the potentially challenging forecast, local ski hill operators say they're not changing course.
"We are not making major operational changes solely because of the El Nino forecast," John Ball, general manager at Ski Snow Valley in Springwater, wrote in an email to Barrie360. "Preparing for temperature changes, rain and freeze–thaw cycles is part of our planning every season. We focus on what we can control: preparing the resort, responding quickly to changing conditions and providing the best possible experience for our guests."
Temperature, humidity and the length of each snowmaking window are what the resort monitors most closely ahead of and during the season.
Over the past three seasons, the resort has invested almost $3 million in low-energy snowmaking equipment, which Ball said allows the resort to take advantage of shorter windows for making snow.
"A particularly poor weather season can increase operating costs and reduce visitation, especially early in the winter, but our snowmaking capability helps reduce our reliance on natural snowfall," Ball added.
Blue Mountain's website says the ideal conditions for artificial snowmaking require temperatures around -2.5 C or lower and it takes anywhere from 72 to 96 hours of snowmaking and grooming time to prepare the surface.
However, drier air that typically comes seldom with El Nino patterns, can make the process much more efficient.
Artificial snow can also be more resistant to melting during rain, giving resorts another advantage against Mother Nature.
For Horseshoe Resort, which is also heading into the season with a positive outlook, taking advantage of Mother Nature's windows for prime snowmaking is just as important.
"Our team is experienced in making the most of favourable conditions, and snowmaking allows us to be proactive rather than relying solely on natural snowfall," a resort spokesperson wrote in an email to Barrie360. "Even if temperatures rise, having a good, maintained snow layer to get us through until temperatures drop is what counts."
The Oro-Medonte resort says its hills' positioning away from much of the afternoon sun, which helps keep the ground at a cooler temperature, along with its own recent investments in snowmaking put it in a favourable position to withstand potentially unseasonable conditions.
However, it's most reliant on natural snowfall when it comes to its Nordic ski trails, which require 10 to 15 centimetres to set tracks without the possibility of damaging equipment.
Phillips says the El Niño forecast for this winter will likely peak in November and December, describing it as the “Godzilla of El Niños.” But he cautioned that the pattern doesn't guarantee consistently mild weather.
"There are wildcards,” Phillips said, pointing to the possibility of disruptions to the polar vortex that could bring periods of much colder weather.
Ultimately, though, the weather will determine when the resorts can open and how long they can stay open.
Snow Valley, like many other resorts, says its opening date remains weather-dependent. Since the 2003-04 season, the resort has averaged 102.6 operating days, with its earliest opening in that span coming on Nov. 22 and its latest closing coming on Apr. 6.
—with files from Dan Blakeley
