Updated October 17, 2024 @ 7:19pm
With a simmering mutiny plot in the backbenches and four more cabinet ministers deciding not to seek re-election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's attempt to right the Liberal ship and stay on as captain is becoming more challenging.
Trudeau is expected to make changes to his cabinet for the third time since July after the latest group of ministers informed the Prime Minister's Office they won't be candidates in the next election.
Filomena Tassi, the minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario, said Thursday she won't be running for personal reasons.
Northern Affairs Minister Dan Vandal and Sports Minister Carla Qualtrough also issued statements to say they won't be seeking re-election.
A senior government source confirmed a report from Radio-Canada Thursday that National Revenue Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau will not be on the ballot next election either.
Qualtrough offered few details except to say that it is time for her to move on and she is excited to see what comes next. She also thanked her family and the prime minister.
Vandal said he had decided it was time to move on to the next stage after 30 years in politics.
None of the ministers immediately left the cabinet. Vandal indicated he was "working with the Prime Minister's Office to ensure an orderly transition of my cabinet positions."
There is no date set for the shuffle but the source said it won't be before all Liberal caucus members are expected to meet on Parliament Hill on Oct. 23.
That meeting could be quite tense, as several Liberal MPs are expected to push Trudeau to resign.
While the loss of several cabinet ministers isn't good news for Trudeau, Liberal strategist Andrew Perez said the cabinet shuffle may be an opportunity to take the wind out of the sails of the caucus revolt.
"In terms of morale, if he does promote a couple or even four members from the backbench, that could be good," said Perez, a principal at Perez Strategies.
But it could also be a "double-edged sword," said Charles Bird, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies.
"For every one that you reward, there's another five or 10 who will be bitterly disappointed, and that runs the risk of further entrenching concerns about the prime minister's future," he said.
Trudeau's leadership has been under fire for months as the government's polling numbers tanked alongside his approval ratings.
Trudeau has so far been steadfast in his plans to stay on as Liberal leader for the next campaign, which must happen before next October but could happen far sooner with a minority government.
Several media reports have outlined plans by some Liberal MPs to band together in an attempt to convince Trudeau to step down.
It's not clear how many MPs have signed onto the effort, or how many of those who have signed on plan to run in the next election.
Vandal criticized the conspiratorial approach his colleagues have taken, which he said he only learned about in the news.
"If you have something to say, just say it," he said in an interview Thursday.
"I think the best way to resolve issues is to just hash it out in the open, in confidence, in the caucus room."
There is no way for caucus to force Trudeau to step aside, but one MP told The Canadian Press on background that some are discussing the possibility of calling for a secret ballot vote on his leadership at next week's caucus meeting.
Holding a leadership race while the Liberals try to hold onto power in the minority House of Commons would be risky, but if Trudeau did decide to step down he could take the controversial step of proroguing Parliament in order to give the party time to elect a new leader, Perez said.
The number of Liberals jumping ship by declining to run in the next election could suggest they are "voting with their feet and effectively signalling that concerns around the prime minister are real," Bird said.
At least 18 Liberals have now publicly confirmed they won't be on the next ballot.
However, two cabinet ministers who announced their plans not to run again said they still stand by Trudeau.
"I wish him the very best now and in the future. I believed in him in 2015 and I believe in him now," Tassi said in a statement on social media.
Vandal also said he's a "strong supporter" of Trudeau's continued leadership.
"I think he's done an amazing job for the first nine years, and really, I have confidence in the entire team going forward to the next election."
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly told a Montreal radio station on Thursday that Trudeau can count her on loyalty and noted that he has said he's committed to staying at the helm of the Liberal party.
"I know times are tough for my party and for our government, we've been nine years in power and there is fatigue," she said, adding she thinks incumbent governments around the world are in a similar position.
"We'll have that conversation amongst ourselves, because I believe that a caucus should be a safe space."
Winnipeg South Centre MP Ben Carr said Vandal's decision is understandable, but he will be missed.
"Any time that a distinguished, hard-working, highly regarded parliamentarian like Dan Vandal decides it's time to step away it's a huge loss," Carr said.
Carr wouldn't speculate about what else the departure of another four cabinet ministers says about the party.
He also wouldn't comment on the ongoing machinations behind the scenes regarding Trudeau's leadership.
"It is healthy to have robust and difficult conversations as a caucus," he said.
Tassi, who was procurement minister in 2022, asked the prime minister to shuffle her into a smaller portfolio at the time for family reasons.
Since then, Trudeau has held three shuffles, including a major shakeup in the summer of 2023 that saw seven ministers leave the cabinet table.
Four of them had announced they wouldn't run again: Carolyn Bennett, Joyce Murray, Omar Alghabra and Helena Jaczek. Then-public safety minister Marco Mendicino, treasury board president Mona Fortier and justice minister David Lametti were also replaced, though Lametti did end up resigning from the House of Commons several months later.
Former labour minister Seamus O'Regan resigned from cabinet in July for family reasons, and former transport minister Pablo Rodriguez left last month to seek the Quebec Liberal leadership.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
— With files from David Cummings
