Ontario's manufacturing sector could be among the biggest casualties if the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement falls apart, according to a new economic analysis that highlights what's at stake as trade talks continue between Ottawa and Washington.
The report from Oxford Economics estimates Canada would lose more than 100,000 jobs if the trade pact were to collapse. Ontario and Quebec would be among the provinces facing the greatest impacts, particularly in the auto, metals and manufacturing sectors.
The United States would also feel significant economic pain, with projected losses exceeding 214,000 jobs.
Report points to gains if new agreement reached
The analysis also outlines a more positive scenario if negotiators successfully renew or update the agreement.
In that case, Canada could gain nearly 98,000 jobs, while the United States could add roughly 137,000 positions.
The findings come as governments and businesses on both sides of the border watch ongoing trade discussions closely. The integrated nature of North America's manufacturing supply chains means disruptions can affect industries and workers in all three countries.
Trade talks continue ahead of tariff deadline
The report is being released as negotiators work to finalize a new trade proposal before a planned 50 per cent U.S. tariff on hundreds of Canadian products is set to take effect next week.
Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc was back in Washington on Tuesday for discussions with U.S. officials.
LeBlanc says talks are continuing and Canada remains focused on "firmly advancing and defending Canadian interests."
Businesses across Ontario's manufacturing corridor are watching developments closely, given the province's deep trade ties with the United States and the importance of cross-border commerce to the regional economy.
The outcome of the negotiations could help determine whether North America sees new job growth under an updated trade framework, or significant losses if the current agreement unravels.
- with files from The Canadian Press
