Simcoe Muskoka case count rises by 11 as Medical Officer of Health notes progress being made

Simcoe and Muskoka has lengthened its "doubling time" in a move in the right direction

Simcoe Muskoka’s Medical Officer of Health is seeing some encouraging signs in the data coming in about COVID-19, but it’s not yet time to let our guard down.

The Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit reported eleven new cases of COVID-19 in the region on Friday, bringing the total number of cases confirmed to 185. This includes 82 people who have recovered and 12 who have died.

“The appearance [is] that we’re containing this, that we are flattening the curve,” said Dr. Charles Gardner in regards to the ‘doubling time’ of the disease; how long it takes before the number of cases is doubled. “It’s actually gone up dramatically, and that’s a good thing; The longer, the bigger the doubling time, the longer it takes the double, the slower the increase in cases, the slower the progression of the outbreak,”

Simcoe and Muskoka’s epidemiological curve

“Our doubling time has increased from 7.2 days to double a week ago, to 14.3 days now, so that’s certainly moving in the right direction,” said Gardner during his regular online media briefing on Friday afternoon.

“The province as a whole is also increasing its doubling time,” added Gardner “It’s, according to our calculation, a shorter doubling time of 9.1 days right now. But nevertheless, it has increased from 5.1 weeks ago. So we are slowing in our cases and the province is slowing in its cases,”

Gardner says this isn’t time to be lax in our restrictions, “Things are actually starting to look like a plateau and I’m happy about that, but we need to keep implementing our physical distancing practices, and we as a health unit need to keep following up on those cases and their contacts to put them in isolation. We need to do that to keep the plateau happening and prevent a surge,” he concluded.

Among Friday’s eleven new cases are four people at Bradford Valley Community Care; they represent the latest in an outbreak now affecting 34. Twenty-eight residents, four of which have passed away, and six local employees. The Health Unit points out two other staff at the home have tested positive but are not counted among the local total as they live outside the Simcoe-Muskoka coverage area.

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