Following an unseasonably warm fall — the warmest in Ontario for 77 years — winter arrived, with a hesitant step, leaving some regions buried under snow and others yearning for more seasonal vibes.
This fall was an extended showcase of mild temperatures, vibrant foliage, and a lack of the brisk transitions usually heralding winter’s arrival. Despite the idyllic autumn, whispers of a more traditional winter loom.
Snowy Splits: Regional Variations
Lake-effect snow has painted starkly different pictures across Ontario. Residents in Gravenhurst and Bracebridge have experienced monumental snowfalls — over a metre in some places — while Barrie and Toronto received a modest dusting that often melted as quickly as it fell.
Lake-effect snow, fuelled by the contrast of warm lake waters and cold Arctic air, has been the wildcard. Variable wind directions scatter snowfalls, making precise forecasts challenging. “When those winds lock in place, they can bury areas like Muskoka in snow,” climatologist David Phillips told Barrie 360, citing two-day totals that left some residents digging out for days. And, with little chance the lakes and bays will freeze over anytime soon, the lake-effect engine could roar some more.
A Warmer Trend Ahead?
Looking forward, January through March is expected to trend warmer than average, says Phillips, though not as mild as last winter, "there will be days you wish you were somewhere else." A warmer winter raises concerns about freezing rain — a hazard for travellers and power infrastructure . “The sweet spot between -2°C and 0°C can lead to those dreaded ice storms,” he warns.
A White Christmas on the Horizon?
With roughly 10 centimetres of snow already blanketing areas like Barrie, and flurries in the forecast, hopes for a white Christmas are higher than in recent years. Historically, the odds of a snowy holiday in Barrie were 75%, but climate shifts have reduced those chances. “This year, though, we’re cautiously optimistic,” Phillips says.
