Barrie-area homebuyers could be entering a more favourable market even as Royal LePage predicts home prices across Canada will end the year higher than previously expected.
Recent market data shows Barrie's median sold price was $644,250 in June, down eight per cent from a year ago, while new listings remained plentiful. That reflects a broader trend seen across Southern Ontario, where buyers have gained more leverage as inventory levels have increased.
Against that backdrop, Royal LePage says it is raising its national housing price forecast for 2026 as demand continues to outpace supply in many parts of the country.
Royal LePage lifts national forecast
The real estate company now expects the aggregate price of a home in Canada to increase two per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $823,344 compared with the same quarter last year, up from its previous forecast of a one per cent gain.
Quebec City is expected to see the largest year-over-year price growth at eight per cent, followed by the Greater Montreal Area and Winnipeg at five per cent each.
Home prices in Halifax, Edmonton and Regina are forecast to rise four per cent.
By contrast, prices in Canada's two most expensive housing markets are expected to decline. Royal LePage forecasts a 3.5 per cent drop in the Vancouver region and a two per cent decrease in the Toronto region compared with late 2025.
Spring market showed signs of improvement
Royal LePage said the spring housing market began to regain momentum in May after a slow start to the year, with that improvement continuing into June.
Company president and CEO Phil Soper said activity has started to pick up in several regions as buyers and sellers return to the market.
"Several regions are now seeing that uptick in momentum carry into summer, as buyers who held back earlier in the year re-enter the market,” said Soper, as Royal LePage released its second-quarter home price update and market forecast report.
“In many cases, what has kept consumers on the sidelines is not a lack of interest, but a lack of urgency. In markets where inventory levels remain elevated, homebuyers have the luxury of time, browsing at their own pace until the right property comes along."
Barrie's News Delivered To Your Inbox
By submitting this form, you are consenting to receive marketing emails from: Central Ontario Broadcasting, 431 Huronia Rd, Barrie, Ontario, CA, https://www.cobroadcasting.com. You can revoke your consent to receive emails at any time by using the SafeUnsubscribe® link, found at the bottom of every email. Emails are serviced by Constant Contact
Economic uncertainty still weighing on decisions
Soper said many Canadians remain cautious because of ongoing economic uncertainty.
He pointed to elevated inflation linked to rising energy prices amid hostilities in the Middle East, along with uncertainty surrounding Canada's trade relationship with the United States.
The Trump administration indicated on July 1 it would not extend the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, triggering a period of annual reviews that will continue until the agreement's scheduled expiry in 2036.
“For Canadian consumers, ambiguity surrounding CUSMA is another reason to pause and reassess before making major financial commitments, including the decision to buy or sell a home," said Soper.
"Even though most are not directly impacted through their employment, we know that trade-related anxiety is enough to weigh on consumer confidence."
Home prices remain below year-ago levels nationally
Royal LePage reported that the aggregate price of a home in Canada fell 1.4 per cent year-over-year to $814,900 in the second quarter.
Compared with the first quarter, however, prices were largely unchanged, edging up 0.2 per cent.
The national median price of a single-family detached home declined 0.9 per cent year-over-year to $862,400.
The median price of a condominium dropped 2.9 per cent to $574,800.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median detached home price increased 0.6 per cent, while condominium prices slipped 0.5 per cent.
Gap between expensive and affordable markets narrows
The report also highlighted a narrowing price gap between Canada's most expensive and least expensive housing markets.
During the second quarter, the aggregate home price fell 4.5 per cent year-over-year in Greater Vancouver and 4.6 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area.
At the same time, tighter housing supply in many other regions helped support price growth.
"Softening home prices in our largest and most costly cities are making these markets more accessible, opening the door for buyers who may have previously been priced out," Soper said.
"Meanwhile, secondary markets that did not experience drastic pandemic price increases followed by sharp declines, have continued to record steady home price gains. Looking ahead, this could translate into less interprovincial migration than we have become accustomed to this decade."
- with files from The Canadian Press
