Fourth wave lockdown possible without increased vaccinations

Ontario’s Science Advisory Table says 85 per cent of the eligible population will have to be vaccinated to avoid a fourth wave lockdown.

The table released its latest COVID modelling yesterday, hours after Premier Ford announced his government’s plans for a vaccination passport.

In addition to increased vaccinations, the Table has also said Ontarians reduce contacts to about 70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels until vaccination levels are high enough to protect the population. It recommends:

• Reducing indoor density, maintaining physical distancing, limiting large gatherings.
• Continuing indoor mask policies and working from home.
• Implementing policies that accelerate vaccination (e.g. certificates, mandates, outreach).

The fourth wave will affect all age groups with the potential to exceed ICU capacity

– Ontario Science Advisory Table

The table is not expecting to see the same proportion of severely ill cases in the vaccinated. However, among the unvaccinated, it sees a rapid increase in the number of seriously ill people needing hospital care as workplaces and education re-open this month.

“Unvaccinated people have a 6-fold higher risk of symptomatic COVID-19 disease, a 30-fold higher risk of being in the hospital and 48-fold higher risk of being in the ICU compared to the fully vaccinated,” the table said.

More than 83 per cent of Ontario residents aged 12 and older have had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and more than 76 per cent have had both doses.

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