“Above average” Fall in the forecast – Environment Canada

Nothing like last year

We slipped from Summer into Fall early this morning (3:50 a.m.).

Environment Canada climatologist David Phillips is hinting it won’t be anything like last fall, “October and November were colder than normal. The frost came, I think, about the thirteenth of October. We had snow about the middle of October…four centimetres of snow before Halloween. And then, by the end of November, we had almost double the amount of snow.”

Phillips says computer models and historical trends point to ‘above average’ temperatures for the most part between now and the end of November. Still, he does not discount the prospect of frost by mid-October and the odd flake of snow.

And while it’s too early to start predicting winter’s weather, Phillips says, “I know the Farmers’ Almanac says it’s going to be the ‘winter from hell’. It’s going to be cold and brutal and polar vortex from Day One until the end, but no, it’s not going to be that way.”

Stay tuned.

Summer was “as it should have been”

Twelve days above 30-celsius (eight is the norm), below-normal precipitation, and no severe weather to speak of – that’s the kind of summer it was.

Most of the hot weather came in July, and we didn’t break any records in our backyard. “The records were all set in the Arctic,” says Phillips. “The Arctic was warmer, at times, than the south.” Phillips is not a fan of records anyway, “I always think it’s best not to set any records. Usually, it means misery, hardship, and misfortune for people.”

“I like the kind of summer we had. It was comfortable, it was not scary, nature performed as it should have been.”

There were no tornadoes in our region. Ontario generally gets 12 or 13 a year. Phillips says you can count this year’s twisters on one hand.